The general trend of the polls is unmistakable. John McCain’s campaign is sinking like the Titanic after having run into the iceberg of immigration “reform”. Oh sure, we can expect the McCain campaign and its misguided sympathizers to cling to the occasional outlier poll that shows the opposite much the way Leo DiCaprio clung to that piece of driftwood after the Titanic sank. But the rest of the Republican Party is like Kate Winslet, desperately trying to pry the McCain campaign’s frozen clammy hand from our own as we prepare for a limitless future.

There are two possibilities as far as the McCain campaign is concerned. The first is he turns things around and zips back to the front of the pack. But let’s be realistic – were it not for his media-awarded putative frontrunner status, John McCain would have no business even being in this race just like Joe Lieberman had no business being in the Democrats’ 2004 race. Like old Joementum, McCain is simply too out of sync on too many issues with the party whose nomination he seeks.

Also like Lieberman, McCain ain’t exactly a political dynamo. You might have noticed during the debates that he comes across frighteningly like a grumpy old Senator. In other words, his potential to turn in a Bill Clinton “Comeback Kid” special is limited.

ASSUMING McCAIN CAN’T RIGHT THE SHIP, dare he actually face the voters? I say no. Fifth place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire followed by a sparsely attended press conference where he belatedly euthanizes his campaign and tepidly endorses the frontrunner would kill off his pretensions to being a figure of power just like a similarly ignominious run made Lieberman a vulnerable looking figure.

So you know what this all adds up to – it’s time for a HughHewitt.com contest! Normally in my contests I give away a corned beef sandwich from a Florida deli that the winner has to fly to Florida to collect. I don’t even include the tax, beverage and gratuity. I have been told this prize is unsatisfactory on a number of levels; the fact that none of the winners have actually bothered to collect has spoken loud and clear.

But in this contest, I have been authorized to offer a real prize. The entrant who comes closest to predicting the date that John McCain officially takes his faltering jalopy of a campaign off the road will win an autographed (and personalized!) copy of “A Mormon in the White House” from the proprietor of this site.

Needless to say, the “Price Is Right” convention applies to all predictions. Because the McCain Campaign Dead Pool was my idea, I get to make the first selection. I’m choosing Friday, August 31, 2007.

Best of luck to all my fellow entrants. Please put your entry in the comments thread.

Compliments? Complaints? Contact me at Soxblog@aol.com.