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Sunday, February 10, 2008
Posted by: Patrick Ruffini at 12:00 AM
He dominated the Kansas caucuses (60-24%) and Washington and Louisiana are too close to call at this hour.

The race isn't any less over than it was 48 hours ago. But it seems likely that Huckabee could accumulate a significant number of delegates and (possibly) keep McCain under the magic number until after March 4th.

There was a question of whether Huckabee supporters would invariably flow to Romney; but Romney voters sure are flocking to Huckabee, raising a legitimate question of whether a social conservative-led anti-McCain bloc would have fared better in the early primaries.

I now expect the protest vote for Huckabee to be quite strong in most states as turnout plummets, maybe 30-40% in the South and Midwest and 20-30% elsewhere, rising to outright victories in caucuses and in the Deep South.

This is not to denigrate McCain's remarkable achievement through Super Tuesday. He won high turnout primaries in every region of the country, and I believe a majority of Huckabee supporters would have voted for him in a two-man race with Romney.

But they have to be wary of a narrative developing if other candidates continue to win primaries or come close after McCain supposedly has the nomination "wrapped up."



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