Romney, of course.  The same factors in Romney's favor -- pull in Michigan, Nevada, Colorado and New Hampshire, the energy brought by his organization-- are still there, but the pick of Biden calls for a very experienced debater as the only thing Slow Joe has going for him is the thousand or so primary season debates he has under his belt.  Romney has the same sort of experience in the one setting where the veep nominees get the nation's undivided attention.

There is also the stark contrast between Romney's experience outside of politics --business and the Olympics-- and the emerging success of his health care program in MA and the 36 years of all talk all the time from Biden.  McCain's enormous record of sacrifice and achievement already show up Obama's thin life experience.  If Biden is compared to Romney on the basis of the accomplishments of the past 30 years, the argument is over before it begins.

The fall campaign is shaping up as one of substance and achievement versus hot air; of seriousness on subjects such as the war, energy and growing the economy versus endless speechifying and gaffes.