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Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Posted by: Patrick Ruffini at 8:37 PM
I'll be live blogging tonight's election results from MA-5 in this space.

Ogonowski winning would be a miracle. To be in single digits already seems improbable. So let's see how close this one is. Ogonowski's people are feeling good about numbers showing extremely high turnout in Dracut, his hometown, and Blue Mass Group (a lib blog) earlier reported very low turnout in Lowell and Lawrence, the district's Democratic strongholds.

8:40 p.m. - This page has the results. Tsongas is 21 points up with 6 precincts out of 195. We need to know where those precincts are.
8:45 p.m. - I'm talking with a source on the ground who says it looks promising.
8:46 p.m. - I'm told Ogonowski won Dracut 2 to 1 with over 50% turnout.
8:47 p.m. - On the first wave of returns showing Tsongas up 20: "If Lawrence reported first, that's what you'd see."
8:48 p.m. - Ogonowski won Kingsboro 55% to 41%. I'm looking up how it's voted in past elections.
8:52 p.m. - IT'S CLOSE: From Blue Mass Group, presumably this is the Tsongas canvas. Wow.
Here's what I've got.  With 137 of 196 precincts:

Tsongas 38,501
Ogonowski 36,395

8:55 p.m. - Hub Politics source: "Close."
8:59 p.m. - Kingsboro should read Tyngsboro. Kerry Healey won there by 5 points. At least there, Ogonowski is overperforming the GOP in the governor's race by 9 points.
9:00 p.m. - AP results: Ogonowski up 5 with 49% reporting.
9:02 p.m. - NECN: Ogonowski 34,752 - 33,984
9:05 p.m. - Again, NECN via IM: Jim Ogonowski:34,752 (51%), Niki Tsongas: 33,984 (49%)
9:06 p.m. - They're coming in fast now. With 147 precincts out of 195, Tsongas has retaken the lead by about 2k votes. 40,782 to 38,673. I'm told Lowell and Lawrence were outstanding and that may have been part of the update.
9:09 p.m. - Blue Mass Group: WBZ calls it for Tsongas.
9:15 p.m. - MyDD: Tsongas up by 3 with 75% reporting. They're calling this "not good."
9:17 p.m. - BMG says 53-47 will likely be the final result for Tsongas. If so, that's closer than every public poll, and shows that the momentum stayed with Ogonowski till the end. When was the last time Massachusetts had a race that close for Congress?
9:20 p.m. - Lowell Sun:
According to the Tsongas campaign, the Lowell resident had captured about 48,000 votes compared to about 43,000 votes for Ogonowski, of Dracut.
9:22 p.m. - The AP has called it for Tsongas.
9:24 p.m. - The change message worked. Though conservative by Massachusetts standards, this is a district that went 17 points Democrat in the last Presidential election. After 2006, is there any Republican-represented district in America that Democratic? Victory would have been a real miracle. But take a powerful citizen-candidate with a change message like Ogonowski and put him in a purple or leans-D district, and we can win.
9:27 p.m. - AP says 51-46 with 85% reporting.
9:37 p.m. - Same margin with 86% reporting per TheBostonChannel.com.
9:39 p.m. - Moe Lane:
Better luck next time, and didn't all y'all it interesting to be fighting on the other guy's real estate for a change? Interesting and fun? Maybe you'd like to do it again, next year?
No reason that we can't, you know.
Let's. There are powerful lessons to be learned from this near-victory.
9:45 p.m. - Who needs Indians-Red Sox? We have politics.



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