For The Hugh Hewitt
Daily Brief
What's Hot | Search |
Back to Townhall.com Hugh Hewitt Home Page
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 9:39 AM
CNN puts McCain with 97 delegates and Romney at 74.

Let's look at the worst case for Romney on Super Tuesday.

Next Tuesday the winner-take-all states that lean McCain are New York (101), Missouri (58), Arizona (53), New Jersey (52) Connecticut (30), and Delaware (18) for a total of 312 delegates.  (Even though Missouri, another winner-take-all leans Huck right now, lets give its 58 delegates to McCain.) 

Romney is favored in winner-take-all Utah (36) and Montana (25), for a total of 51 delegates.

Thus before the sorting takes place in the other states, McCain's got 409 delegates and Romney's got 126.

Huckabee will certainly get the 34 Arkansas delegates to go with his 29, for a total of 63. 

States dividing delegates Tuesday on other-than-a-winner-take-all basis:

California          173
Georgia               72
Illinois                   70
Tennessee          55
Alabama              48
Colorado             46
Massachusetts    41
Minnesota            40
Oklahoma            41
West Virginia      30
Alaska                  29
North Dakota       26

Total                     671

If these divide 40-40-20,  McCain and Romney will add 269 delegates each, and Huck 133.  But since we are going worst case for Romney, make it 50-30-20, or 336 for McCain,  201 for Romney, and 134 for Huck.

Total at the end of Super Tuesday without a major reversal of fortune for Romney:

McCain 745, Romney 327, and Huck 197.

It takes 1,191 delegates to secure the nomination.  There are more than 900 delegates left to fight for after Super Tuesday.

Start looking hard at the numbers and put yourself in the discussions with Team Romney.  It isn't pretty, but it is far, far from over.

And if the Huckabee voters look at the reality and see they are voting for McCain when they vote for Huck, anything can happen.


Monday, December 01, 2008
The Opening of the Obama Era
Young America's Foundation
John Fund: Rebuilding the Conservative Movement
Listen Now
Podcast
BreakPoint
A Cancer on the System: Radical Surgery Required
Listen Now
Podcast
Hugh Hewitt
Romney talks about what he has seen in Iraq, and how the leaking of this story will affect the war on Terror.
Listen Now
Podcast
Support Young Life
Archives
Blog Search: