Happy 4th! Before I run along for a day of patriotic merriment, I ought to say something about the fund-raising numbers. It’s true, I’ve been remiss. Okay, here goes.
Romney and Giuliani are obviously the non-Fred! top tier in the Republican Party. At this point, it’s a two-man-and-a-wildcard race, with the wildcard being the favorite, at least for the moment.
As far as McCain is concerned, I’ve been saying his campaign is toast for over a month now, and I see no compelling reason to change my tune. He’s got a mere $2 million in the bank and now he’s going to posture as a maverick outsider. Good luck with that.
I did find this Marc Ambinder analysis of the McCain juggernaut to be unintentionally hilarious:
Every strategic assumption McCain brought to the campaign has been overturned by events. The financial elite of the party never forgave his departure from their cherished orthodoxies. The McCain campaign did not believe that immigration would empower the anti-McCain factions of the party. They expected Mitt Romney to fizzle, early, and expended much effort to destroy his candidacy from the beginning. They did not believe that Rudy Giuliani would run. They did not believe that Fred Thompson would run. They may have misjudged the willingness of Republican voters to tolerate the situation in Iraq…
(But) his campaign brain trust is as smart as they come.
Right. Sharp as a bowling ball they are. Lest I be accused of Dowdifying Ambinder, the comment regarding the putative smartness of McCain’s brain trust was part of a list extolling the campaign’s other strengths, e.g. “he remains popular with the Republican base.”
All I can say is “giggle.” I think the McCain Campaign Dead Pool entrant with my 40th birthday (July 13, in case you want to send me a present) is going to walk away with the coveted signed and personalized copy of “A Mormon in the White House?”
THE REAL STORY HERE is how much trouble the Republicans are having raising money compared to the Democrats. Not to be a Perry Pessimist here, but it says something that Mitt and Rudy combined raised less than Obama. Since Obama has no real message besides his old reliable of “Vapid Hope,” I have no idea what he’s going to do with all those shekels. Still, the fact that he has them tells you how much more enthused the Democratic base is about 2008 than the Republican base is.
Does this enthusiasm gap in the bases say something relevant about 2008’s eventual outcome? I’m not sure. It’s axiomatic that the party out of power is always more juiced for an election than the incumbent party. But the current disparity is rather stunning.
2007 is proving to be a tough year for Republicans. If 2008 is anything like its predecessor, we’ve got trouble.
Compliments? Complaints? Contact me at Soxblog@aol.com