Unfortunately, another conference call has come and gone without my being invited. This time, the culprit was the Giuliani campaign. I can happily report that the Romney campaign did invite me to a conference call yesterday, but I didn’t attend because it conflicted with my daily afternoon siesta. At this point in my life, conference calls are a lot like weddings – I like the honor of being invited, but I don’t really want to go. Luckily, Mrs. Soxblog never forces me to attend conference calls. (I wonder if I have to send Mitt a gift. And if I do, is he registered anywhere? If someone from the campaign would get back to me on that, I’d appreciate it.)

But I digress. The Giuliani shindig actually made conference call history because something important happened. The campaign announced it would be skipping the Ames Straw Poll. I’m assuming that this news arose not out of a genuine feeling that straw polls are for dorks, but rather because Team Rudy knew it would get creamed. And if Rudy got creamed in Ames, holding onto his media bestowed frontrunner crown would be a large task indeed.

Nevertheless, I think the Giuliani campaign is making a huge mistake. A candidate can no more “skip” Ames than he can “skip” Iowa. Team Rudy’s decision to so hastily quit Ames says something about the campaign’s viability.

Look at it this way: If Rudy thinks he’s going to lose Iowa, lose New Hampshire, lose South Carolina and somehow still win the nomination, he’s dreaming. And I can’t imagine the campaign thinks a slim lead in the national polls is somehow going to translate into a victory in any of the early states. At some point, Rudy has to engage Fred and Romney on neutral ground and win. Iowa is that neutral ground. If Rudy can’t be competitive there, he’s not going to be the nominee. It’s that simple.

I also figure that the decision to not participate in Ames is a huge indication of the state of Giuliani’s Iowa operation. Rudy’s been running for president for six years now, and obviously at this late stage the campaign feels his showing in Ames will be disastrous.

IN MY HUMBLE OPINION, the decision to skip Ames is too cute by half. There is going to be a straw poll in Ames, and if Rudy comes in way behind Thompson and Romney and perhaps even trails one of the second tier candidates, the media will notice. The little asterisk that Rudy’s campaign is trying to place next to the forthcoming train wreck, on the other hand, won’t be.

Oh, the video up above is of the infamous Howard Dean scream. (My favorite part has always been the befuddled old man standing next to Tom Harkin.) For those of you with short memories, Dean bellowed right after losing Iowa because he knew his campaign was over, even though that night’s victor, some guy named John Kerry whose name I don’t readily recognize, was still but a blip in the national polls.

In other words, Iowa matters a lot. And Ames matters a lot, because it measures a candidate’s strength in Iowa. By withdrawing from Ames, Rudy has already made a damning statement about his prospects in Iowa. And that statement will get replayed when the straw poll actually happens. I think he’d be better off spending the next two months fighting for Ames, rather than surrendering as he did today.

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