The latest Rasmussen numbers are in, and all I can say is Fred! Thompson now leads with 28%, Rudy’s nipping at his heels at 27%, and Mitt and McCain both have 10%.

So what’s it all mean? Let’s take ‘em one by one:

1) Thompson - It’s his race to lose. Please note, that’s not the same as saying he’s going to win. In 2004, the Democratic nomination was Wesley Clark’s to lose. Clark proved more than up to the task of blowing it, transforming himself from a frontrunner to an also-ran in three short months.

Before anyone blows their top, I’m not comparing Fred to Clark. Clark was truly one of a kind. As you’ll recall, the Democrats were panting to nominate a man who had worn the uniform. They would settle on (and did settle on) anyone who met this minimum threshold. And yet Wesley Clark, the Supreme Commander of NATO, outed himself as an astonishingly maladroit politician in a few short weeks.

Fred is a savvy pol. If he entered at the same time as everyone else and without all the hoopla he currently enjoys, he still would have been a top tier guy. But right now, in his 28% he has a lot of people who are there because they think he’s their dream candidate. For the Thompson campaign, having the reality of Fred match the expectations will be quite a challenge.

2) Rudy – Good news Giuliani supporters! I figured out how Rudy can win. He needs Romney to win Iowa and New Hampshire. He then needs Fred to win South Carolina. Rudy has to hope that each candidate’s momentum cancels the other one’s out so Rudy can go on to win Florida and mega-Tuesday.

I think this is a long shot. The main reason Rudy is struggling in the states that are paying attention is because his social positions are way out of step with the rest of the party’s. That problem will likely plague him until the end.

3) Mitt – Romney probably needs to be within a dozen points or so of the leaders when he wins Iowa. Of course, any scenario that figures on Mitt getting the nomination depends on him winning Iowa. Non-national figures don’t get the nomination unless they show well in the early states. Mitt has a couple of really positive things going for him. Number one, everywhere he’s campaigned he’s made great progress. And number two, his top-notch fund-raising operation will allow him to wage pedal-to-the-metal campaigns in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida.

Don’t get me wrong – the Romney campaign wouldn’t mind seeing that 10% be a 15% this morning. I would imagine the thing that most disconcerts the campaign right now (I know it’s what disconcerts me most) is that Fred’s performance will be the single most determinative factor in how this race turns out. Pre-Fred, I was pretty confident that Mitt could handle Rudy and McCain since both guys hauled such major baggage into the campaign. Fred’s different. Unlike McCain and Giuliani, there’s no reason why Fred can’t be the nominee.

4) McCain – Watching the McCain campaign is reminding me of watching the extended four hour version of Das Boot. You know he’s not going to make it, you’re just waiting for something to happen. It’s also suffocating and unpleasant.

Are the McCainiacs so deluded that they still think their guy has a chance? Here’s a helpful hint for them – it’s not just immigration. His performance represents six+ years of chickens coming home to roost. Besides, doesn’t the Senate need McCain back on a full-time basis? Come on Senator - there are so many other sticks left to shove into the collective Republican eye. It’s not like the Fairness Doctrine or Net Neutrality will happen on there own. Maybe something like a Frank/McCain revenue enhancement plan that doubles the top marginal tax rate will bring that old spring back to your step.

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