How bad will this fundraising quarter be for McCain? Well, they're sending emails like this out to their list:

In fact, The New York Times reported last week that John McCain's long crusade against business as usual in Washington, he does not rely on big money contributions from Washington lobbyists and power brokers; he relies on contributions from hard-working supporters like you. That is why we need your help today. ...

Some industry lobbyists call John McCain a "one man wrecking crew" because of his efforts to defend taxpayers. In the Oval Office, John McCain will follow through on his promise to veto every bill packed with wasteful spending that comes across his desk and make the people who wrote it famous. John McCain has the courage to stand on our side; it is time for all of us to stand with him.

Isn't this the kind of email you'd expect from John Edwards, who has raised under $8 million? And this comes from a campaign that's stuffed with lobbyists.

Don't count me in the McCain Death Watch camp just yet. Edwards is what a campaign that's in a real money tailspin looks like. The true moment of decision for McCain won't come until September, when net cashflow starts turning red. And consider this: If things got really dire, McCain would have the option to self-fund or loan himself some of his wife's eight figure fortune, like Kerry mortgaged Teresa's house to rescue his failing campaign in late 2003.

With his strategic investments in early primary states, Romney is failing to put this away from a money perspective, and will likely raise less than $20 million organically this quarter -- down from last quarter. The real question is if Giuliani does better this quarter than last.

Enter New Media Fred! If he can raise a minimum of $5 million and keep the overhead low, he'll be on track to best the Big Three's COH totals sometime this summer. If he does $7-10 million, it changes the complexion of this discussion entirely.