The latest Rasmussen numbers are out, and it’s safe to say that Fred Thompson’s entry into the race has turned over the checkerboard. Rasmussen shows Fred tied for first with Rudy at 24% and Mitt and McCain checking in at 11%. Results like this, by the way, are one of the reasons that I put my faith in Rasmussen. Any poll that doesn’t have Fred at least strongly challenging for the lead is lagging behind reality.

So what’s it all mean? First, to underscore the obvious, the appearance of another top tier candidate in the race makes it tougher for all the other guys. I’m sure none of the top-tier campaigns are doing backflips after seeing these results.

Taking them one-by-one, it’s hard to see how McCain is going to see this thing through. He’s gone from putative front-runner to fourth place in six months and his numbers in the early states look awful. Even more importantly, his momentum remains headed in the wrong direction. There’s absolutely no indication that he’s bottomed out. I still don’t see him making it to Labor Day.

For Mitt, there has to be some disappointment. He entered the race as an unknown, had zipped past McCain and was primed to zip past Rudy. Now another stud is suddenly hugging the rail, leading the pack. The good news for Mitt is that he’s proven a more able candidate than all comers in the past, and he’s still looking very solid in the early states. I’m sure overall the Romney campaign is pleased with where it stands. I’m also sure that they’re less pleased than they were a couple of weeks ago, before Fred officially took the plunge.

Regarding Rudy, I think Fred’s entry makes things very difficult for him. Rudy has faltered in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. His national lead has disappeared. He’s basically putting all his money on his Florida firewall, something I considered a very dubious strategy even when he’s winning Florida by 20 points. No candidate can survive dismal showings in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Now, it’s beginning to look like Rudy’s Florida firewall is composed of old Chevy Corvairs. The latest poll out of the Sunshine State has Rudy pulling 32%, Thompson 21% and Mitt 17%. (In case you care, McCain’s at 12%, well ahead of Ron Paul.)

As for Fred, we’ll see. I like him, but it remains to be seen how he’ll fare as an actual candidate. The first thing working against him is the bar has been set impossibly high. He’s the “someone else” guy right now, the one without any flaws. That will change when his campaign becomes active.

The other thing is running a real campaign is damn tough. 8 days ago, we heard about the formation of the Thompson Pioneers, a group of roughly 80 people who pledged to raise $46,000 apiece for Fred on June 4. This would have given Fred a solid war chest. Oddly, we haven’t heard anything from the Thompson pioneers since June 4 came and went. The fact is, regardless of how thick your Rolodex is, getting 20 people to write out $2300 checks overnight is nearly impossible. These things take time to build.

So where does the race stand now? Mitt’s still got momentum going forward, but less than he had a week ago. McCain and Rudy have tough problems; McCain’s are insoluble, Rudy’s may be. Fred, if he runs a perfect campaign and meets everyone’s expectations will win the nomination. Unfortunately for Fred, the expectations are for him to be a Messiah.

Interestingly, the other party also has a Messiah. When he announced, he was instantly tied for the lead. Now, five months into this thing, he’s trailing Hillary Clinton by double digits and shows third in Iowa.

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