I think I’ve shown admirable restraint in not mentioning Mitt Romney’s improving poll numbers. But I am a weak man, and I can only control myself so long. The fact that Romney is holding steady at 12% in the Rasmussen polls is pretty significant. Romney needs a minimal level of support to trampoline from a victory in Iowa to sweeping the primaries. The bump in the national numbers is an excellent sign for Romney. Watch the Ames straw poll this summer – if Mitt can pull that out, he’ll be tough to beat.

Now about Thompson – not that anyone from Thompson HQ has asked my advice, but if I were he, I’d stay out until the Fall. Act presidential, be above the fray, keep enjoying copious amounts of favorable free media, and avoid the embarrassments that inevitably occur with 24/7 campaigning. The Thompson strategy should be to capitalize on a surge of interest that will occur when he officially enters the race. If he enters now, he’ll be just another guy by the time Iowa rolls around. Right now, he’s the Great White Hope. Read Stephen Hayes’ brilliant Weekly Standard profile for more on Thompson, especially his “The Simpsons” analogy, and you’ll get a sense of why I think waiting is the best strategy.

One more thing – as I witness this campaign, I can’t help but simmer in a low level rage at the campaign finance reformers from both the 70’s and the aughts. Both groups of naïve do-gooders wanted to take money out of politics. Instead, they made politics all about raising money. The process all of the candidates have to engage in is almost dehumanizing. For goodness sakes, poor Hillary has had to pretend to like Terry McAuliffe for over a decade now!

Whoever enters the White House, be it Obama of Fred! or Rudy or Hillary! will do so as damaged goods. If you listen to that foolish speech Obama gave earlier in the week, you’ll hear the unmistakable signs of exhaustion and fatigue that can turn even the brightest person into a blithering idiot.

The candidates that are able to discipline themselves to avoid unforced errors will be at a huge advantage. On the Democratic side, I think that augurs well for Hillary. On the Republican side, I think it augurs well for Romney. And Fred.

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