Soren Dayton says that Mike Huckabee’s rise is facilitated by Rudy Giuliani’s slide in national polls. Social conservatives have less need to compromise and swallow Mitt if they believe Giuliani will fade on his own.

But appearances and reality can sometimes be quite different. Rudy may appear weaker in national polling, but he is actually strengthened by the dynamics of the Romney/Huckabee fight.

A few weeks ago, Romney rolling in both Iowa and New Hampshire was the nightmare scenario for all Republican candidates not named Romney. Romney could only go from 10% in national polls to the nomination with a Kerry-like burst of publicity arising from a 1-2 punch out of Iowa and New Hampshire.

Now, Mike Huckabee, armed with little more than a sling-shot, is casting serious doubt on that strategy.

That gives Rudy some breathing room. He is not where he needs to be in the early states, but short of one outright win in the first two contests, his February 5th strategy will rely on a split decision from the Hawkeye and Granite States. Mike Huckabee provides the best hope for that, by far.

Let’s go back in time to 1996. Bob Dole was a weak frontrunner who couldn’t break 27% in the first few contests. He had about as bad a run in the early primaries as you can have without losing the nomination. He eeked out a win in neighboring Iowa. He was then humiliated in New Hampshire by Pat Buchanan. He lost Delaware. He lost Arizona. As a Steve Forbes supporter at the time, I relished the talk of a brokered convention. Bill Safire ended a column with, “Richard G. Lugar of Indiana on the 10th ballot, anyone?”

Now, no one — least of all Rudy — wants to be compared with Bob Dole. But here’s what Dole had going for him: the opposition was fragmented. Pat Buchanan won in Louisiana and Iowa. Forbes won in Delaware and Arizona. Lamar! had a Huck-like burst of momentum out of Iowa. Conservatives couldn’t settle on a single anti-Dole candidate. Had such a candidate swept the non-Iowa races up to South Carolina, they probably would have won. But the field was split.

If Huckabee wins Iowa, his momentum is not actionable in New Hampshire because of the demographics, but he probably wounds Romney, making that a closer race than it would have been with Rudy (or McCain?) With Fred (probably) out of the race, Huckabee then wins in South Carolina. A poll released at the YouTube debate already had Huckabee at 17% in Florida. Mitt’s only obvious opportunity in this early state jumble is Michigan, but will he have the momentum needed to move up after underperforming early on (unless Rudy/McCain/Fred somehow all self-destruct)?

This early muddle is exactly the kind of scenario Rudy’s 2/5 strategy was made for. As people try to sort out the Mitt/Huck mess, Rudy bides his time and rolls with big delegate wins in Florida, California, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois.

It’s risky, to be sure. I’ve never been a fan of this approach, and Rudy’s people do seem to be walking it back a bit. But it is exactly this kind of late strike by Huckabee that may validate Rudy’s initial strategy in the end.