The Weekly Standard’s always excellent Matthew Continetti spent some time following Newt Gingrich around and speculates about Newt diving into the presidential ring in late September. On the other side of the political spectrum, similar speculation surrounds Al Gore. And you know for something to be able to surround Al Gore, there has to be a lot of it.

It’s no accident that Gingrich and Gore are the two politicians who have decided that a late entry into the presidential race and, more importantly, presidential fund-raising, doesn’t make a campaign a non-starter. Both Gingrich and Gore are more comfortable with new media than any other politicians; Gingrich is a noted futurist, and Gore invented the internet for heaven's sake. They understand how you don’t need a lot of money and a lot of organization if you’re really famous and popular.

My guess is their plans go like this: Because they’re really famous, they’ll get a ton of free media – newspapers, blogs, cable news appearances, Academy Awards. You name it, they’ll get it. Their late entry into the race will make their already high profiles instantly skyrocket. Even before the time of new media, late entrants living off the land like Ross Perot could zip to the top of the polls. Perot was sitting on top of the world before he began wasting his millions (and revealing himself as a tad on the eccentric side).

What new media will add to the equation is a ready made organization for a candidate to glom onto. A call out from the blogs, especially the liberal ones, can mobilize all kinds of support. The right candidate could easily achieve parity with the rest of the field in spite of his late entry into the race.

SO WHO WOULD THE RIGHT CANDIDATE BE? Well, to start with, he would have to be a popular guy who party activists adore. He would be a natural front-runner, not some obscure long shot. In other words, Gore and Gingrich qualify. Dennis Kucinich and Chuck Hagel don’t.

There’s an additional advantage to coming late to this particular election. Because the campaign has started so early, there’s a good chance that the electorate will have grown sick of the existing field by the time Fall rolls around. Already, if my Inbox is any indication, Republican loyalists are grumbling about the quality of their candidates. This surprises me; I think back to 1996 when we had to choose between the uninspiring Bob Dole, the unhinged Pat Buchanan and the unbearably lame Lamar Alexander. By any historical standard, this year’s field is pretty stellar.

But still, the electorate will grow increasingly frustrated. Rudy’s too liberal. Mitt may be too liberal. McCain’s definitely too McCain. The late entering candidate can enter the race promising to elevate the debate and finally address the issues that have been neglected the previous several months. In this context, even known quantities like Gingrich and Gore will seem like breaths of fresh air.

IT ALL SOUNDS GOOD ON PAPER. But it won’t work. Gingrich and Gore both hope to delay their entries so their well known faults won’t be extensively picked over. The part they’re missing is how much faster the media works than it used to. It will take weeks, not months, for the media to remind the electorate of all the well-documented shortcomings that both men have.

For Gore, well, he’s Gore – a shrieking, tiresome technocratic scold who nobody east of Hollywood has ever liked. In 2000, he ran on the record of an incredible economy and decided to pose as an angry populist. He changes personalities more often than most men change socks. He’s weird. We tried “weird” in the Oval Office with Richard Nixon – it didn’t work.

Newt’s a tougher subject, especially for people like me (and probably you) who have a genuine fondness for the man. Newt has made tremendous intellectual contributions to our body politic. Not only does he read books, he even writes them.

Newt is also the man who led us out of the political wilderness in 1994. For those of you who have come of age since then, I’m not sure you can understand who unthinkable a Republican takeover of the House of Representatives had been for thirty years prior to ‘94. The fact that Gingrich even dreamt of such a thing was audacious. That he was able to make it happen evidenced political genius.

Since his fall from grace (more on that in a bit), Newt has steadily contributed to the conservative movement where we’ve needed it most – intellectually. Especially at this moment when conservativism seems intellectually exhausted or at the very least unable to articulate itself, Gingrich’s talents in both areas are particularly attractive.

But aaah, there is that fall from grace. As a leader Gingrich did poorly. The Congress he led failed to deliver on its promise. And largely because of his personal missteps such as complaining about not riding up-front on Air Force One, the movement stalled.

And then there are his personal peccadilloes. Just this week, Gingrich revealed that while Clinton was being hounded by congressional Republicans because of his dalliances with a zaftig valley girl, Gingrich himself was engaging in an extra-marital affair. When this information gets added to the shabbiness that surrounds his first divorce, an unflattering portrait emerges.

ALL POLITICIANS HAVE THINGS WORKING FOR AND AGAINST THEM. How well they do depends on which side of the ledger the public is paying attention to. If you think of the Kennedys and your mind turns to touch-football games on Hyannisport and adorable moppets careening around the White House, chances are you think well of the clan. On the other hand, if the mention of the name Kennedy causes your mind to picture a portly aging Senator cruising for nubile chickitas in Palm Beach, you probably have a decidedly different take on things.

If one side is particularly prominent, it completely squeezes out the other. That’s why Rudy Giuliani has to be concerned about his family situation, just as Mitt Romney has to be concerned about the flip-flop rap.

Newt hopes that by entering late, the positive things he’ll bring to the race (his ideas, his intellect, his vision) will drown out his personal imperfections. For a few news cycles they probably will.

But, fairly or not, at the presidential level Newt’s negatives combine to constitute a hanging offense. After he stops being the media darling, and that will take days not months, all his past stumbles will be relived. Breathlessly and above the fold.

Newt has a lot to offer our nation, and he may even make a great president. But let’s be real – America will never elect someone with a recent past like his.

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