I find it fascinating that there is an issue out there on which virtually every conservative can find agreement - the issue of mainstream media bias - and yet conservatives are falling into the trap of listening to the pundits tell them it's hopeless, McCain can't possibly win. It seems like each election cycle the degree or depth into the tank the MSM will go for the Democratic Party cannot possibly be exceeded. This cycle, old media's pretention of neutrality and objectivity, to quote Hillary Clinton, requires a willful suspension of disbelief. We've seen polls just in the last week ranging from Obama up one point nationally to up 23 points.
Conservatives know they're not getting the straight scoop when they watch or read the news. So why then are they getting dejected when the "it's over, don't even bother voting" meme is in full force? We don't believe the media because they're carrying water for Obama, but we're feeling lousy because the polls by these same people say Republicans are going to get creamed? What utter nonsense.
The only poll that got the 2004 results close was the IBD Tipp poll. Most of the other polls then had John Kerry up around five points before the election. George Bush won by a little over two points. In recent history, Democrats have underperformed what they're polled at, and Republicans tend to overperform. IBD Tipp's Sunday number has McCain within four, a very doable close for McCain, if this poll is accurate.
I'm not going to provide any pessimism here. You can find that a little bit later amongst the trolls that will comment on this post, virtually anywhere you look in the left wing blogosphere, or elsewhere in the rest of mainstream media. What I will offer you is the only thing Barack Obama is offering - that is, besides a gigantic tax hike and a lurch to the left this country hasn't ever seen before - hope. From the blog
Virginia Virtucon:
I was having dinner a night ago with a friend of mine who is a statistician for a well-regarded private polling company. They do some work for Republicans in California, but most of the work they do is for Democrats or Democrat-leaning operations (Unions, etc.). Anyway, her shop was retained to do a few Presidential polls for targeted states on behalf of a union so the union could decide where to spend their ad dollars for the last week. They did Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Missouri. After mocking the hell out of the voter id spreads used by Rassmussen, Zogby, etc. (and this is coming from a committed Dem who will be voting for Barry O) she said the results of their polling lead her to believe that McCain will definitely win FL, OH, NC, MO and NV. She says Obama definitely wins New Mexico. She said that Colorado and New Hampshire were absolute dead heats. She said she thinks there is a 55% chance Obama holds on in Pennsylvania and a 75% chance McCain wins Virginia. She absolutely laughed at the public polls showing Obama leading Virginia–and pointed out that all of those polls rely on Dem turnout being 4 and as much as 7, when in 2006, Republicans actually had the advantage by 3. She also pointed out that the numbers for Obama in SWVA look absolutely awful and that McCain is running 10 points better then Allen did in NoVa.
Anyway, her companies conclusion is that the election will come down to Colorado, New Hampshire and the Republican leaning district in Maine, which in her opinion might very well decide the Presidency (apparently the district in Nebraska that Obama thought he might be able to get is now off the table). She said she has very little doubt that the public polling is part of a “concerted voter suppression effort” by the MSM. She said IBD/TIPP was the only outfit doing public polling that was “worth a bucket of warm piss”.
Is this accurate? Who knows? If it's not, does this mean you give up because you've been told it's hopeless? Of course not. Continue working, fellow conservatives. You have 8 days to do your part to get out the vote. If you want to give yourself motivation to work like there's no tomorrow, picture in your mind the look on Chris Matthews' and Keith Olbermann's face when McCain-Palin hits 270 Electoral Votes and pulls off the upset.
By the way, if you do the Electoral College map with leaners reflecting the scenario above, you get Obama at 250, McCain at 254, with Colorado, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, and maybe one EV in Maine, making up 34 toss-ups.