This is the best political news that the Republican Party has heard in six months since the 11/7 apocalypse: Chuck Hagel will consider running for president as a third party candidate. Intuitively, this might strike conservatives as bad news since Hagel is a Republican (giggle) and thus would by definition peel off more votes from the GOP’s candidate than the Democrats’.
But it wouldn’t work like that. Through six years of preening and lecturing and hectoring, Chuck Hagel has a lower Q-rating in conservative circles than Madonna. But there’s something deeper at work here.
It’s liberal America, especially the far left, that has a passion for anti-war voices who have worn the uniform. The Daily Kos spent the 2006 cycle recruiting anti-war Iraq veterans to run for Congress. The Democrats nominated John Kerry in 2004. James Webb is the ranking Democratic heart throb. If Webb had sought the nomination via a Howard Dean-style grassroots campaign, he would have been tough to beat. (Good thing he didn’t, because he would have been impossible to beat in the general.)
There are two things we know about the Democratic nominee: First, he or she will be anti-war. And second, he or she will not be a veteran. Even in their lower tiers, the Democrats don’t have a candidate who served. If they did, that guy would move up to the top tier in a hurry.
The modern Democrats are very fond of their Absolute Moral Authority™ rubbish. Some of them will be drawn to the fact that Hagel can tap this much more effectively than their nominee.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying Independent Candidate Hagel will be a huge factor in the 2008 election. It’s not like he’ll get more than 5% of the vote in any state. But on the war, he’ll be running to the left of the Democratic nominee and with a lot more credibility than the typical lunatic fringe candidate. Hagel could be even more destructive to the Democrats’ chances than Nader was in ’00.
I say again – Run, Chuck, Run!
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