1) I’D REALLY LIKE TO BELIEVE THE A.R.G. POLL that Hugh cites below. Mitt’s numbers look much-improved, and McCain leaps forward as the frontrunner. This is good news on two fronts, first because I love to see Mitt’s numbers going up and McCain is a much less formidable front-runner than Rudy.
But, alas, the numbers come from A.R.G. If you study the linked chart, you’ll see that A.R.G.’s record of accuracy is about half as good as the Rasmussen robo-polls. What I’m saying is that the blindfolded chimps that throw the darts at the distant dartboard to generate ARG’s numbers are woefully inaccurate. A.R.G. has a long and not particularly distinguished record of producing outlier polls.
Like I said, I’d love to believe it. But until the campaigns begin feeding me their internals, I’ll put my faith in Scott Rasmussen and his robots. And don’t take my word for the quality of Rasmussen’s efforts. Listen to the estimable Michael Barone who says on the subject, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com.”
2) ABOUT FRED’S NON-TRADITIONAL CAMPAIGN – On the Townhall blog, our sagacious Matt Lewis notes the untraditional campaign that Fred Thompson will run and that he’ll avoid some of the mundane slogging through Iowa and New Hampshire. I think Fred will indeed run an untraditional campaign, but the slogging he’ll avoid won’t be that which occurs in the rural paradises but rather the more dreadful slogging a presidential candidate must do through the nation’s most opulent living rooms and ballrooms as he chases funds.
Fred loves retail politics. It’s one of his strengths. And he’s proven that he can get his commanding mug on TV and his soothing voice on the radio without even having a campaign committee. I’ve said it before – for someone with his level of fame and who generates the public interest that he does, living off the land as an undeclared candidate is a smart and eminently doable thing. Obviously this strategy wouldn’t work for everyone. I think for Tommy “Schmuel” Thompson, it would be a decided bust.
Not that the Thompson campaign has asked my advice, but I’d enter the race in September if I were running that particular show.
3) I’VE TOLD YOU IN THE PAST THAT JOHN EDWARDS is the Netroots candidate of choice. As a sign of this reality working its way to a formal public acknowledgement, note the current dust-up between Barack Obama and the liberal blogosphere.
The bare-bones of the scandal are as follows: The guy who took it upon himself to run Obama’s MySpace page generated a community of 160,000 rabid activists. (That’s liberal blogger Micah Sify’s infelicitous phrase, not mine.) The Obama campaign wanted to take control of the space. The volunteer said sure. For $50,000. The Obama campaign said in effect, “And the horse you rode in on” and used MySpace’s rules to seize the domain name. Now said volunteer has no domain name, no $50,000, but a lot of sympathy from people like Jerome Armstrong.
Not that Obama ever had a chance with the Nutroots since Edwards carries them in his back-pocket the way Don Corleone carried all those judges and politicians, but nevertheless Obama has committed the cardinal sin for anyone who wants to work with the Netroots. He disrespected them.
What gets the Nutroots up in the morning is the chance that some politician will demonstrate his fealty and devotion in the most obsequious manner imaginable. Not only did Obama fail to do that, he treated a blogger like something he stepped. He declined to cower before their imposing might as John Edwards did when he didn’t fire those kooky bloggers that he never should have hired in the first place. In deferring to the Nutroots’ wishes on that matter, Edwards showed an appropriate respect for the titanic force that liberal bloggers wield.
Barack Obama, the man who is probably by consensus the guy most likely to be our next president, has for the moment refused to kneel. And now he shall feel the Netroots’ wrath. Markos has already rattled his saber. As Drudge would say, DEVELOPING.
Compliments? Complaints? Contact me at Soxblog@aol.com