(Guest Post by Bill Dyer a/k/a Beldar)

Sometimes it takes the smell of blood in the ring to awaken the dormant fighting spirit of an old warrior.

The closest either man came to a major blunder was when Professor Barack Obama accidentally told the truth about how his running mate's home state of Delaware panders to credit card companies and banks. But Captain John McCain, despite a slow start, opened up a cut or two on Professor Obama in their early exchanges over the origins of and responsibility for the current financial crisis.

Now, as a fight fan, I can't dispute that those punches should have been thrown before tonight. And when Professor Obama pointed out that Captain McCain was not an original cosponsor of the bill to regulate Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and that the bill didn't pass, Captain McCain missed a superb counter-punching opportunity when he failed to say, "It didn't pass because the same executives from those entities who'd given you all that money I just talked about came to Congress to testify that there was no crisis, and there would be no crisis, and everything was just fine!"  That might have been a knockdown.

In any event, however, that overall exchange was the moment that Captain McCain regained the offensive — not just in the debate, but in the overall campaign — and he got stronger and sharper as Professor Obama continued to flail about ineffectively.

The pivot I referenced in the title to this post was quite literal, and it was vintage Captain McCain: Tom Brokaw (who did a good job suppressing his liberalism and a fine job overall) had fussed at both candidates for running long. That prompted Professor Obama to whine for a relaxation in the rules so that he could have another follow-up, but this came immediately after Captain McCain had pounded him for the first time about his naivete in threatening military action on Pakistani soil without the permission of its government. Brokaw was in mid-sentence refusing to change the rules, when Captain McCain literally whirled and — with the sagacity of the experienced warrior — agreed to Professor Obama's proposal.

Professor Obama then proceeded to violate the First Rule of Holes (when you realize you're in one, stop digging) — or, to return to boxing metaphors, he once again decided to lead with his chin. And thus, Captain McCain got yet another chance to pound him with Teddy Roosevelt's "Speak softly and carry a big stick" line.

Professor Obama speaks loudly, long, and with the glib but callow voice of inexperience. Those who already loved him don't care. They are drunk, besotted with Obama hopey-changiness, and they will love him even more after tonight. Those who aren't in love with either candidate, however — those who are still actually getting to know Professor Obama — are the voters who will decide this election. Those critical voters whose minds were not already made up are coming to realize that despite the great first impression he makes, Professor Obama never actually gets any better. He doesn't suddenly become wiser; he doesn't suddenly grow a legislative record of accomplishment; on substance, he never transforms himself into anything other than the tax-and-spend Chicago pol which in fact he is. As with Professor Marvel in "The Wizard of Oz," the sound and visual effects become considerably less impressive on subsequent viewings and the little man behind the curtain harder to ignore.

The third and final debate will confirm that Professor Obama is a candidate who lacks the instinctive ability to close the deal, just as he proved during his ever-slowing coast to the finish-line barely ahead of the ever-scrabbling Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries.

Professor Obama tonight again proved himself to be the more cautious candidate, but the greater risk for America. Captain McCain again showed that he is the political risk-taker, and he will govern as a reformer — but without bringing the risks inherent in the candidacy of anyone so inexperienced and yet smug as Professor Barack Obama. "Change you don't have to risk the future of the world on" is indeed a winning program for this election.

I do not expect the overnight polls, or even polls later this week or next, to reflect the ground which I believe that Captain McCain made up tonight. And frankly, short of a huge blunder by Professor Obama, there was nothing Captain McCain could have said tonight which would reverse those polls. Rather, he had to bang home again and again the key strong points for his own candidacy — he won't raise taxes in a recession and he won't settle for less than victory in Iraq or Afghanistan — and continue to plant seeds of doubt about the judgment, policies, and record of his opponent. He did both of those things.

For reasons having absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with Professor Obama's race, but everything to do with his demonstrated lack of character and paper-thin record of accomplishment, this race will ultimately come down to just how many people who might want to vote for him nevertheless can't bring themselves to. And there's no way to know how many people that describes before the crucial moment at which their votes are cast.