First, give $50 bucks or more to McCain.  It will bne spent between now and the convention and that will help stem the MSM cheering for the Dalibama's Denver coronation.

Next, read my Townhall.com column: Memo to a Lingering Conservative: "Today we are all Georgians."

Next, if you know any voter over the age of 25 who might be persuaded by facts and arguments that Obama is way left, wholly inexperienced and not to be trusted in the Oval Office, send them David Freddoso's great new book, The Case Against Barack Obama.  Freddoso's a serious reporter and the book is not open to the attacks that are directed at Jerome Corsi because of Corsi's fringe statements and past.  Getting Freddoso above Corsi on the best-seller lists and getting Freddoso's arguments distributed far and wide is a key goal for the next ten days.  Send a copy to a reporter of your choice as part of the effort to get the MSM to focus on Obama's many controversial associations and votes.

And if you have a young voter in your life who is undecided or leaning Obama, send him or her Letter to A Young Obama Supporter.  Especially if they vote in one of the key swing states.

As I said on Hannity & Colmes last night, I hope every American reads the Obama response to Jerome Corsi's book.  Corsi's from the fringe --we know that.  But Obama's responses to Corsi's charges are often risible, such as the assertion that Bill Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn are "members of the establishment."  Geraghty's blogging away on portions of Obama's absurd set of non-responsive responses, and we are both waiting for Obama's reply to the Freddoso book. 

(Update: See Thrust and Parry's analysis of Obama's push-back on the fence btewwen Obama's house and Rezko's yard.)

After three weeks of blunders and pratfalls, senior Democrats have to be wondering whether Team Obama is up to the main event.  Yes, they had a great run --in the early spring, against an incompetent and divided Clinton operation, in an environment of media cravenness which has dissipated if not completely disappeared.  Now they botch a gimmie --defining Corsi as a nut while not putting attention on the charges he leveled-- and fumble the most important issue of the summer by calling by having the candidate call for U.N. mediation of the Russian rape of Georgia.

Recall that the Kerry campaign ended up having a major shake-up after the convention when the serious people were brought on board.  The message was righted and the candidate put on a message and the campaign tightened.

Senior party activists have to be worried that what they believe was a once-in-a-generation opportunity is slipping away amid tire gauges and the defense of unrepentant terrorists, melting in the heat of a campaign where Obama clings to defeat in Iraq and the idea of world citizenship that has played out so well in Georgia.

Could Axelrod be pushed aside?  Or at least the inner circle expanded just a bit to let in some folks who have been to this dance before?

Meanwhile, McCain's instincts were perfect this week, and the issues have shifted to his great benefit.  If he gets the veep right, the fall will open with what is essentially a dead heat, but with the old soldier's campaign hitting on all cylinders while Obama continues to be dogged by the thinnest resume of any major party candidate in modern times and a life story that was never vetted and is still only slightly known.

I am reading through the Obama push-back on the Corsi book to get ready for an appearance on Hannity and Colmes tonight, and the shoddy work product put out by Obama could well throw fuel on the fire.  Corsi's certainly got errors in his book, but Obama's team is trying too hard when they assert about unrepentant terrorists Bill Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn in response to Corsi that "AYERS AND DOHRN ARE MEMBERS OF THE ESTABLISHMENT WITH TIES TO THE MAYOR" (p. 16 of the Obama document) or that with regard to Alice Palmer --the Illinois State Senator that Obama's team had removed from the ballot in his first race for state office, that "PALMER PULLED HER OWN PLUG." (p. 18.)

On page 9, Obama's defense brief asserts:  OBAMA HAS MADE CLEAR REPEATEDLY THAT HE STOPPED USING MARIJUANA IN COLLEGE, WHICH PEERS HAVE AFFIRMED."  But the Corsi assertion being responded to here also pointed out that Obama has yet to answer questions of whether he ever dealt drugs, and the single assertion about quitting that Obama's team cites is from an interview in '03, which is hardly "repeatedly."

I am just getting started, but Obama seems to have made a huge mistake in attempting to spin many of these charges.  Most of them are matters of opinion --such as the interpretation of Michelle Obama's "not been proud of America" comment or whether Hamas endorsed Obama.  By throwing this much fuel on the fire, the fire gets bigger and all of these stories/charges./assertions get more attention.  Corsi is the happiest man in the world tonight because Obama's team not only gave him a few million dollars of publicity, they also failed to discredit him completely.

But the key error is that now Obama will have to do the same thing forDavid Freddoso's extremely well-researched and documented book.  Looking forward to that "push-back" as well.



UPDATE: Yuval Levin shares my instinct that the Obama camp has blown this response.   It may be a case of believing too much in the myth of the "Swift-boating of John Kerry."  Kerry's credibility took a hit because he indeed had not been in Cambodia on Christmas Eve --one of the central charges of the Swift Boat Veterans.  By believing in the myth that nothing the SBVT put out was true, the Obama people have stumbled into a response that asserts nothing damaging from Corsi could be true when it fact lots of it is.  

And the response to Freddoso's book comes when? 

Colonel Tom Manion (USMC, ret) will be my guest in the first hour today.

Please consider donating to his campaign via the internet here.
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I pointed to this blog by the U.S. open water swimmer last week, and you should read his take on the swimming events thus far. 

That is Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, telegraphing that Russia has no intention of returning to the August 6 borders anytime soon, which was also apparent in the recent comments by President Medvedev.

All of which increases the pressure on the U.S. and its G-8 allies to schedule a meeting for the purpose of ejecting Russia from the organization, one way or another.  Charles Krauthammer offers these additional suggestions:

1. Suspend the NATO-Russia Council established in 2002 to help bring Russia closer to the West. Make clear that dissolution will follow suspension. The council gives Russia a seat at the NATO table. Message: Invading neighboring democracies forfeits the seat.

2. Bar Russian entry to the World Trade Organization.

3. Dissolve the G-8. Putin's dictatorial presence long made it a farce but no one wanted to upset the bear by expelling it. No need to. The seven democracies simply withdraw. Then immediately announce the reconstitution of the original G-7.

4. Announce a U.S.-European boycott of the 2014 Winter Olympics at Sochi. To do otherwise would be obscene. Sochi is 15 miles from Abkhazia, the other Georgian province just invaded by Russia. The Games will become a riveting contest between the Russian, Belarusian and Jamaican bobsled teams.

All of these steps (except dissolution of the G-8, which should be irreversible) would be subject to reconsideration depending upon Russian action -- most importantly and minimally, its withdrawal of troops from Georgia proper to South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

The most crucial and unconditional measure, however, is this: Reaffirm support for the Saakashvili government and declare that its removal by the Russians would lead to recognition of a government-in-exile. This would instantly be understood as providing us the legal basis for supplying and supporting a Georgian resistance to any Russian-installed regime.

I am leery of Olympic boycotts because they don't work and they don't work while injuring the athletes, but in this instance a push to have the IOCC remove the Games from Russia would make sense.  All of the other measures make obvious sense.

What matters most is speed.  History is full of loud denunciations followed by...less frequent denunciations, followed by acceptance of the status quo until the gangster regime makes another grab.  State will want to move slowly.  The president should push hard now for all of the sanctions available to him.

And Obama might want to come back from vacation and bone up on Russia --a state unlikely to listen to much less allow a U.N. mediator (does Obama know Russia has  a Security Council veto?) a recognition that might end Obama's silly talk of a U.N. mediator being the answer here.  As Lindsey Graham said yesterday: "The thing about Sen. Obama, he's playing catch-up here. His initial statements, quite frankly, didn't appreciate how bold a move this was from Russia."

As Rudy Giuliani put it on my show yesterday:

Senator Obama is, and I think this is clearly true, the most inexperienced candidate to run for president in the last hundred years. And his reaction to Georgia is the perfect example of that. First, he talks about a moral equivalent between Russia and Georgia, then he talks about going to the U.N. Well, somebody’s got to remind him that the Soviet Union, or the Soviet Union originally, and now Russia, has a veto power in the U.N.  

 

Every week ElectionProjection.com updates the map of the electoral college.  Here's the most recent map which puts Obama with 298 EVs and McCain with 240:



The weak Obama states are:  Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio, which represent 38 electoral votes.  Move those four states into McCain's column, and he becomes the president.

Given that the swirl around the Ridge story from yesterday continued at Politico.com this morning, this is the map tokeep in mind when considering Senator McCain's choice.

The vice presidential nominee most likely to impact those four states most likely to shift towards McCain from Obama is Mitt Romney, who won three of the four GOP contests in them.   Romney's vacation home is in New Hampshire.  His ties to the mountain west from the years he spent guiding the 2002 Winter Olympics as well as the sizeable LDS communities in Nevada and Colorado argue for his selection.  Romney's primary help to the ticket would be in Michigan, where he was of course born and raised and where his father and mother are still remembered warmly, but Romney's ability to talk convincingly about the auto industry and economic revival generally would also help across the border in the Buckeye State.

The next most likely battlegrounds include Michigan, but the other "moderate Obama" states that McCain could target include Iowa, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin --states which Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty could help in.  Secreatry Ridge could help in PA of course, and remains very popular there as I confirmed on my trip there over the past three days, but not enough t make the Keystone State a lock for McCain, and the cost to the overall effort of a pro-choice nominee would be significant.

Both Romney and Pawlenty have been in knock-down political battles before and are thoroughly vetted by the sort of political combat that brings everything to the surface.  Both could help raise money for the party machinery, though Romney gets the edge over Pawlenty there because of the vast nature of his network.  Both have traveled abroad extensively and both have long management experience that will contrast sharply with Obama's almost non-existent resume.  Both have debated able opponents and done well, though Romney again has a lot of experience in the high stakes national debate that will dominate three or four days of the election cycle this fall.

McCain can indeed win the presidency with an excellent campaign in the fall, the first major decision of which will be the veep selection.  Since it is obvious that he truly wants to be president, and because the risk to the country is so large from his losing, I expect McCain will pick one of these two men and probably Romney on the Monday after the Democrats leave Denver. 

I was in Philly over the past three days, and was honored to meet Tom Manion and Craig Williams, both of whom are candidates for Congress, and both of whom deserve your support.

After 30 years of service in the USMC, Tom is now running to help secure the victory that his son Travis sacrificed everything for.  Travis, a USNA graduate and also a Marine like his dad, was killed in Iraq last year, and his father and mother Janet feel that the Congress needs the perspective not just of veterans, but also of Americans who have paid such an enormous price. 

Tom Manion's story is summarized here.  You can donate to his campaign here.

I also met Craig Williams, another veteran, and also a candidate for Congress.  (Craig is still serving in the reserves, and has been a federal prosecutor.)  He too deserves your support.  Both men are part of the very best group of challengers the GOP could field --veterans who understand the times in which we live.

Obama wasn't kidding about the "citizen of the world" stuff.  Here's a pic of a billboard at the corner of Airport Road and Bill Clinton Blvd (gotta love the irony there) in Abuja, Nigeria, snapped by a listener.  Click on image to enlarge.

That's the possibility raised by Senator McCain in a conversation with the Weekly Standard's Stephen Hayes.

Discussing the possibility of a pro-choice veep is fine, and perhaps even excellent politics.  Actually picking a running mate who is pro-choice would end the momentum that has been shifting to McCain, and almost certainly destroy the prospect of his winning.  Conservatives who have begun to recognize the danger posed by an Obama presidency to the national security of the United States and put their shoulder to the wheel would melt away by the millions as they would see the effective evisceration of the party's pro-life commitment. 

Secretary of State Rice, at a press conference today:

This is not 1968 and the invasion of Czechoslovakia where Russia can threaten its neighbors, occupy a capitol, overthrow a government and get away with it.  Things have changed.

Once a statement like this is made, it is crucial that it be proven correct.
If Russia does not pull back to the August 6 lines, it should be expelled from the G-8.

I'll discuss Russia's rape of Georgia with Rudy Giuliani on today's show (and the rumor that Colin Powell will endorse Obama).  The transcript will be here later, and the podcast here. 

Michael Barone will also join us to discuss the momentum shift to McCain over the past three weeks.

I finished David Freddoso's excellent new book, The Case Against Barack Obama, on today's flight back from Philly, and will ask both Giuliani and Barone if they have yet read it.  Freddoso's book is carefully researched and thoroughly footnoted, and makes the very compelling case that not only Obama not a reformer, he's a very far left liberal, and his long time friends, associates and mentors range from radical to as crooked as any con man you can conjure up in your imagination.  Read the book and commit its key arguments to memory.




One of the strories Freddoso covers is Obama's support for Alexi Giannoulias, which ought to raise eyebrows --and the interest of the MSM.

That's from John McCain's statement on Georgia yesterday, and in those few words is contained a large argument why voters should elect the Arizona senator and not Barack Obama.

The world in which we live cannot be captained by a rookie without any meaningful executive experience, an enormous ambition, a radical agenda, and a long record of hard-left freinds and mentors that we have to expect would dominate his administration from day one.  The irsk Obama represents is huge.

Here's the McCain speech from yesterday (HT: Powerline):

Georgia itself, my friends, has a long and remarkable history. It was a fourth-century convert to Christianity, one of the first nations on Earth to convert to Christianity -- if you go to Georgia, as I have several times, you'll see churches that go back to the fourth- and fifth-century -- and it's been a part of the grand sweep that comprises Western civilization. But because of their location, their history hasn't been easy. Through the centuries, they have seen invasions and attacks from Mongols, Russians, Turks and Persians. And through it all, they maintain their language, their cultural identity, and their national pride. And as you know, they were part of the Soviet Union and were able to achieve their independence when the Soviet Union disintegrated. And they're facing terrible trials today, but they'll get through this, too.

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All the news that was fit to leak.  Let me know your favorite passages via hugh@hughhewitt.com.

ThreatsWatch has a set of excellent links.

Why is Russia still in the G-8?  Sure, Obama supports the bear's membership, but maybe even the One has figured out that Russia is not our friend.

If a vote on Russia's status is scheduled, we might see the promise of a ceasefire kept and a pull back of Russian troops.  Pretending that Russia did not just mug Georgia will produce more muggings in the near future.

WorldVision is at work in Georgia assisting the huge number of refugees from the Russian aggression.  Please consider helping our ally through this very effective relief organization.

More details here.

UPDATE:  Reports in the British press are dire.